of the operative information
For those who are for the first time on our page
You have a unique opportunity to receive the information on forthcoming
earthquakes for major part of the territory of Northern hemisphere for
the nearest 2 days. Besides here we explain some of the questions concerning
the forecasts our visitors asked.
The exposed forecasts are probability estimations as well as all forecasts.
There is some indeterminacy which can be reduced up to 5 % but for this purpose
extra examinations and interaction with the operating seismological service
have to be carried out. Unfortunately, on the present moment, we don't have
such support and it has a significant effect on the prediction of a place of
the epicenter and the force of earthquake.
The seismologists are persistently making the forecasts using the various
forerunners in Earth and ionosphere, which can be united in some groups.
The tags bound with measuring of strains and declinations of a surface are
related to the first. To the second group we'll relate all tags based on
the eduction of lithosphere gases, change of a level of water, ultrasonic
noise on various frequencies. To the third group it is possible to relate
the electromagnetic phenomena and all manifestations bound with them.
The fourth group is connected with tags bound with an ionosphere and detected
through the observations over a surface of the Earth from satellites.
The examinations of the processes occurring in all strata of the Earth are very
important, but we consider, that for the forecast of earthquakes it is not
necessary to be restricted only with lithosphere even with the registration
of ionosphere. This statement is proved by the successful results of our
(estimation of the forecast's justifience)
basing on the registration
of solar activity, planetary allocation of atmospheric pressure, temperature
of air, change of velocity of gyration of the Earth and current seismological
conditions. It is necessary to underline, that all tags used by
the seismologists are in a different degree bound to atmospheric processes
(especially tags of the 2, 3 and 4 groups). For example, the eduction
lithosphere of gases and uprise of groundwaters is closely connected with
the response of the Earth to arrival of the indignant parameters of solar
activity with the subsequent change of the moment of an impulse from an
atmosphere and ocean. The electrical phenomena are immediately bound to
an electric field of an atmosphere. Energetic particals precipitation
frequently observed in an ionosphere are bound to downflows of convective
atmospheric processes, that gives in an extra loading on a surface.
Therefore the seismologists don't and won't have a reliable method of
a short-termed prediction of surface earthquakes without the registration
of influence of atmospheric processes. For understanding of interior
processes of the Earth seismologists frequently (theoretically and
on sectional of observations) view planets of Solar system. However,
they still don't relate surface earthquakes to an atmosphere. But already
it is known, that on planets with the well advanced atmosphere
(Earth and Venus), the strong earthquakes occur almost each day.
On planets without an atmosphere only feeble deep earthquakes
may occur (Moon, Mars). Again it proves the essential influence of atmosphere
on the seismicity of planets. We use the fields of the meteorological
performances on the space of all Earth. However each seismic dangerous
region has unique peculiar spatial - time seismological mode, that's why
the forecast of earthquakes for each region is made on the basis of
the approaches accepted in synopsics. Therefore we also have termed our
method seismo-synoptic. On the basis of a seismo-synoptic method less
than for 2 years some hundreds earthquakes of various force were predicted.
The forecasts are estimated operatively after obtaining the information about
(estimation of the forecast's justifience) .
But when we have compared our forecasts with measurings of earthquakes 5-7 days later
after arrival of the reports about all earthquakes on a site USGS
(the earthquakes for 30 days)
it was convinced that the justifience of
the forecast of a site of the epicenter frequently reached 85 % but thus
the force of earthquakes was occasionally more feeble in 2-3 times.
Dear visitor, you will be easily convinced in it if you visit our daily
page and centres of collection of the information about the earthquakes.
It is possible to give set of examples of the forecasts but we'll speak
only about several recent known cases. Earthquake of September 1 in
Sakhalin (the card exposed in the Internet) was predicted for one day.
(September 1 in Sakhalin)
January 9 - earthquake in Tadjikistan - card exposed for 2 days -
(January 9 in Tadjikistan) .
January 16 - earthquake on Taiwan, the card exposed for 1 day -
(January 16 Taiwan) .
22 June 2002 ã. - earthquake on NW Iran - card exposed for 2 days -
-(22 June 2002 NW Iran)
If to orient only on one or two seismic dangerous regions the forecast can
be considerably improved. It is necessary to underline, that earthquake is
a very composite natural phenomenon. Its occurrence depends on a great
number of the factors and prehistory in various gamuts of time variability.
We have created this seismo-synoptic method on the junction of several
scientific directions, but its complete embodying is ahead. Therefore it
guesses a little bit other approaches under the notification of the population
and activity of the population knowing the forecast of strong earthquakes.
The most important thing is to be ready to shock of elements even at
70 % forecast.